Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee producer, is navigating through a year of off-cycle production, higher-than-average fertilizer costs, and a dip in planted area. Despite these challenges, the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) report predicts a 6% increase in total coffee production in the market year 2023/24.
Challenges, Resilience, and Future Trends for Vietnam's Coffee
Over the past year, Vietnam's coffee sector has experienced a roller coaster ride of ups and downs. Challenges such as off-cycle production, soaring fertilizer costs, and a decrease in the area planted with coffee have tested the industry's resilience.
Despite these hurdles, the most recent USDA FAS report projects a 6% increase in total coffee production for Vietnam in the market year 2023/24.
However, there is an intriguing paradox as exports are expected to drop significantly in the same period. Despite the challenges, Vietnam's coffee industry remains steadfast, and its ability to adapt and grow continues to showcase its significance in the global coffee landscape.
Vietnam in the Global Coffee Production Landscape
Despite facing various challenges, Vietnam continues to hold a prominent position in the global coffee production landscape.
The sheer scale of its coffee output is remarkable, with expectations of producing around 31.3 million 60-kilo bags of both arabica and robusta coffee in the upcoming market year. This significant volume underscores Vietnam's crucial role in meeting global coffee demands.
However, despite its substantial production capacity, there is an anticipated decrease in coffee exports by approximately 4%, resulting in around 27.5 million bags being exported. This decline can be attributed to lower in-country green coffee stocks, which have been affected by factors such as higher coffee prices and stricter EU import regulations set to take effect. Despite this temporary setback in exports, Vietnam's reputation as a major coffee producer remains formidable, and the country's contribution to the overall coffee market cannot be underestimated.
The ability of Vietnam's coffee industry to continue producing at such a substantial level amidst challenges demonstrates its resilience and adaptability. Vietnamese coffee farmers, processors, and exporters have shown remarkable dedication and skill in navigating the complexities of the coffee trade. Their commitment to maintaining productivity levels despite external pressures highlights the industry's significance in the global coffee supply chain.
Moreover, Vietnam's position as a dominant player in coffee production is not solely based on quantity. The country's coffee beans have gained recognition for their consistent quality and unique flavor profiles. As consumer preferences evolve towards seeking distinct and diverse coffee experiences, Vietnam's ability to deliver a variety of high-quality beans, both robusta and arabica, becomes a crucial asset.
Additionally, the country's robusta beans, which have often been overlooked for their milder taste compared to arabica, are increasingly finding their place in specialty coffee blends and premium coffee products. With growing interest in exploring new taste dimensions, Vietnam's robusta beans provide a valuable and complementary addition to coffee roasters and blenders worldwide.
Despite the challenges and fluctuations in export volumes, Vietnam's coffee industry's long-term prospects remain bright. As the world's coffee consumption continues to rise, and market dynamics evolve, the country's strategic position as a major coffee producer will continue to play a vital role in meeting global demand. The industry's ability to adapt to changing circumstances, foster sustainable practices, and cater to diverse preferences ensures that Vietnam remains a formidable force in shaping the future of the coffee trade.
The Potential of the Export Market
Despite the projected decrease in coffee exports, the FAS report remains hopeful about Vietnam's export market potential, particularly for robusta coffee. The report indicates that there may still be room for growth, as global demand is expected to rise by 1 to 2 percent during the 2023/24 market year, with a significant boost in demand from both the United States and Asia.
According to the report, global demand may increase by 1 to 2 percent for the 2023/24 market year, primarily driven by heightened demand in the United States and Asia.
This surge in demand can be attributed to various factors. In the United States, for instance, consumers have been increasingly drawn to specialty coffee and unique flavor profiles, which robusta coffee can offer when cultivated and processed with care. Moreover, as the specialty coffee movement gains momentum in many Asian countries, there is an expanding market for high-quality and distinct coffee experiences.
The report highlights an interesting dynamic that could work in favor of Vietnamese robusta coffee – higher production costs for arabica coffee worldwide. With increasing costs associated with growing arabica coffee due to various factors like climate change, labor expenses, and environmental regulations, buyers may turn to robusta as a more cost-effective and viable option.
Vietnam's advantage lies in its expertise and experience in robusta coffee production, which has been a significant focus of the country's coffee cultivation. Farmers have honed their skills in cultivating and processing robusta beans, allowing them to produce better-tasting and higher-quality robusta coffee that can cater to the evolving demands of the global market.
Vietnamese robusta beans have often been used in blends to enhance the body and crema of coffee, making them a valuable component for many coffee roasters and brands worldwide. As the demand for diverse and distinctive coffee experiences rises, Vietnamese robusta's unique qualities can provide a compelling proposition for coffee enthusiasts and businesses alike.
While the challenges in the export market are acknowledged, the FAS report's positive outlook on the potential growth of Vietnam's robusta coffee export is encouraging. As long as the country continues to focus on maintaining and enhancing the quality of its robusta beans, and tapping into the rising demand from key markets, Vietnam's position in the global coffee trade remains promising. Adaptability, innovation, and a commitment to sustainability will be essential for Vietnam's coffee industry to seize the opportunities presented by a shifting coffee landscape and secure a strong footing in the international market.
The Impact of EU Commission Environmental Regulation
One notable aspect that may affect Vietnam's coffee industry is a new amendment to the EU Commission environmental regulation (2023/466). Set to take effect in September, this amendment aims to address pesticides and pesticide residues in food products. Stricter rules on pesticide residues for nuts, including coffee at 0.1 mg/kg, could pose challenges for Vietnamese coffee farmers and exporters during the initial stages of production. Complying with these regulations may require adjustments and adaptations within the industry.
Insights from Recent Studies
Insights from recent studies on Vietnam's coffee production provide valuable understanding of the sector's current status and future prospects. One study by P. Thuy, L. Niem, and P. Lebailly revealed that intercropping coffee with other crops yields higher returns than mono-cropping systems. This highlights the potential benefits of integrating coffee cultivation with other crops, promoting sustainability and increased income for farmers.
Another study by G. Maskell et al. utilized remote sensing data to map three coffee production systems in Dak Lak, Vietnam, shedding light on spatial patterns and variations in coffee cultivation. This information is crucial for sustainable land use planning and resource management.
In a 2020 study, Carmen Nab and Mark Maslin assessed the carbon footprint of coffee production in Brazil and Vietnam, comparing conventional and sustainable practices. Sustainable coffee production had a 77% lower carbon footprint due to cargo ship transport and reduced agrochemical use. Further reductions were recommended through improved agrochemical usage, packaging, water heating, renewable energy, roasting, and carbon offsetting. These findings have the potential to positively influence coffee production in Vietnam.
In the following year, a study examined coffee cultivation in Vietnam's Northwestern Mountain Region and how it triggered an agricultural transition from subsistence to commercialized production. Coffee replaced swidden crops, introduced multicrop systems, and boosted income, leading to transformed livelihoods and changes in land use. These insights provide a comprehensive understanding of the transformative impact of coffee cultivation in the region.
Conclusion
Vietnam's coffee sector faces various challenges, including off-cycle production, rising input costs, and new EU Commission environmental regulations. Nevertheless, the industry's resilience is evident as it continues to project growth in total coffee production for the upcoming market year. Despite the projected decrease in coffee exports, the FAS report remains optimistic about the export market's potential, particularly for robusta coffee. As Vietnam navigates these challenges and looks towards the future, the insights from recent studies provide valuable knowledge for sustainable practices and development. Vietnam's coffee industry plays a vital role in the global coffee market, and its ability to adapt and overcome obstacles showcases its significance in shaping the future of coffee production and consumption worldwide. Stay tuned for more updates on the trends shaping the future of Vietnam's coffee production as we explore the FAS coffee annual reports in this series.
Meet the expert
Amélie has a dual Bachelor of Biological Sciences and Literature. She wrote a Master's Thesis on the importance of blending scientific knowledge with the arts to create a healthier culture. She also has a Bachelor of Education and has been teaching Biology and Language Arts since 2016. She is happily addicted to coffee and constantly learning.
